The first leg of the Triple Crown is here, with the 152nd Kentucky Derby set for Saturday at Churchill Downs, and horse racing fans and bettors always love a longshot. The most famous recent upset in the Run for the Roses came in 2022, when Rich Strike went from “also-eligible” entry who was added to the field the day before the race to winning by less than a length over Epicenter. Rich Strike was 80-1 in the Kentucky Derby odds, making him the second-biggest longshot to win the “Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” after Donerail, who won at 91-1 in 1913. This year’s race features plenty of elite horses, but can a horse like Incredibolt (20-1) or Albus (30-1) pull off a shocker at Kentucky Derby 2026? Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets, double what’s available to the general public:
Saturday’s post time in Louisville, Ky., is set for 6:57 p.m. ET. Renegade is going off as the 4-1 morning-line favorite in the Kentucky Derby 2026 odds, followed by Further Ado (6-1) and Commandment (6-1). Chief Wallabee (8-1) and The Puma (10-1) are also top contenders in the 2026 Kentucky Derby. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets.
In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, Yu gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.
She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young’s win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman’s win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe’s win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could be up huge.
Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions
One surprise: Yu is fading Commandment, despite his status as one of the favorites at 6-1. There are several contenders outside of Renegade with decent odds to win at Churchill Downs but Yu does not believe Commandment is one of them. The horse is coming off a win in the Florida Derby but the concern here is the slow closing speeds. Commandment saw reduced speeds from the Fountain of Youth Stakes to Florida, and the Kentucky Derby is even longer, suggesting the horse could fade late even with a strong start.
Another concern is jockey Luis Saez. While other contenders like Further Ado and Chief Wallabee have jockeys with track records of success, Saez has not finished first or second in the Kentucky Derby in 12 previous starts. He has won two of the last four Kentucky Oaks races, but Saez just can’t seem to get the same performance for the main event at Churchill Downs. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another curveball: Yu is high on The Puma as a 10-1 longshot as the proven horse racing expert likes the Gustavo Delgado-trained colt’s consistency. The Puma won the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7 and finished second at the Florida Derby three weeks later. Derby co-second favorite Commandment edged The Puma by a nose in the race at Gulfstream Park.
“He did everything but win the Florida Derby when Commandment nosed him out, but he has been super consistent,” Yu told SportsLine. She also says “his best races put him right in the mix,” and jockey Javier Castellano and Delgado teamed up to win the Derby in 2023 with Mage. Castellano also won the 2023 Belmont Stakes on Arcangelo and has won the Preakness twice. He is looking for a second victory in his 18th Run for the Roses. The Puma has finished in the top three in all four races since his maiden run in January. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing for the Kentucky Derby here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks
Moreover, Yu’s top pick is a horse who is “screaming for more ground.” She also is high on a big double-digit longshot who will be the “forgotten horse.” She is including this horse in her 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.
