One of many first issues so that you can determine concerning the quarterback place in Fantasy Football is how a lot of an anomaly do you consider 2022 was. As a result of it 2022 is repeated this 12 months, it ought to influence how your draft quarterback and it’ll look completely different than earlier than.
Final 12 months, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts all averaged between 28.1 and 29.4 FPPG in an ordinary CBS league. Joe Burrow (26.29) was the one different quarterback inside 5 Fantasy factors per sport of them. Solely six QBs averaged even 22 FPPG. Then there have been 9 QBs between 19.49 and 21.61 FPPG.
If that is the brand new panorama, the folks drafting the highest three QBs in Spherical 1 may very well have two stable legs to face on. And it is value saying that Mahomes and Allen’s manufacturing final 12 months was not a fluke in any respect. It is very near their three-year common. The distinction was that so few QBs saved up with them. In 2021, there have been seven QBs who scored at the least 23.8 FPPG. A full dozen hit that mark in 2020.
If you happen to have a look at the projections on the backside of this text and do the mathematics you will note that I’ve seven QBs projected for 23 FPPG and 5 extra between 22 and 23. I do anticipate the again half of the top-12 QBs to bounce again. Here’s what meaning for technique:
Quarterback draft technique
Whereas I am not taking any QBs in Spherical 1, for the primary time in a number of years I do have three QBs ranked in Spherical 2; Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts. If you happen to miss them, that is okay, simply purpose for Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields in Spherical 4. In truth, I’ve a couple of two-round distinction between the primary a number of tiers, with Justin Herbert and Burrow in Spherical 6 (till Burrow is 100%) and Tua Tagovailoa and Anthony Richardson in Spherical 8. If you happen to miss all of those guys there’s a glut of QBs stepping into Spherical 10 or later that I’m positive with.
This final paragraph was about full PPR leagues the place passing touchdowns are value six factors. In non-PPR leagues, QBs get somewhat enhance as a result of everybody else loses these factors from catches, however that enhance is lower than a spherical. In leagues that reward 4 factors per go TD, QBs ought to fall at the least a spherical. The order ought to change additionally, and I’ve an inventory beneath with the QBs who transfer up in leagues that reward 4 factors per go TD.
In a league the place you can begin multiple quarterback? I revealed my Two-QB Prime 200 on August 21.
Now let’s check out the breakouts, sleepers and busts. As a reminder, sleepers and busts are closely influenced by ADP, and for this model, we’re utilizing CBS ADP:
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Numbers to know
- 2 — Mahomes and Allen are the one QBs within the NFL to completed high 5 every of the previous three seasons.
- 29.04 — Joe Burrow averaged 29 FPPG within the 9 video games that Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins had been each wholesome.
- 0.89 — Daniel Jones averaged 0.89 Fantasy factors per rush final 12 months, second solely to Jalen Hurts.
- 105.5 — Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL with a 105.5 passer score. He additionally lead the league in yards per try, and landing charge.
- 2,973 — Jalen Hurts produced 2,973 yards from scrimmage within the first half of video games final 12 months, practically double his second half manufacturing. If the Eagles play extra aggressive video games, he may very well be even higher.
- 69.8% — Geno Smith led the NFL in completion proportion and now he is added Jaxon Smith-Njigba. We would all be too low on Smith.
- 643 — Kirk Cousins threw 643 passes in a season that his crew gained 13 video games. If their protection and luck regress, Cousins may strategy 700 makes an attempt.
- 40.8 — Lamar Jackson averaged greater than 40 FPPG the primary three weeks of final season, then Rashod Bateman bought harm. With new weapons and a brand new OC, Jackson may compete for QB1 once more.
Draft to stream
Geno Smith vs Rams, at Lions
For the previous two years, the Rams have had a super-talented protection that does not fairly carry out like one. Now I am not even positive they’re that gifted. Smith had a legitimately nice 2022 after which added Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet to an already gifted crew. Irrespective of how he does in Week 1, we’ll be beginning him at Detroit in Week 2. No crew gave up extra Fantasy factors to QBs in 2022 than the Lions.
Jared Goff at Chiefs, vs Seahawks, vs Falcons
Talking of Detroit, Goff wasn’t nearly as good as Smith final 12 months, however he was one of many surprises of the 2022 season and now will get to open the 2023 marketing campaign in a shootout towards the Chiefs earlier than back-to-back house video games towards mediocre defenses. The Chiefs gave up the third-most Fantasy factors to QBs final 12 months, partially due to how typically their offense scored. This 12 months should not be a lot completely different. Goff ought to be a top-12 QB over the primary three weeks.
Russell Wilson vs Raiders, vs Commanders
I utterly perceive for those who do not wish to begin Wilson in Week 1 after what we noticed final 12 months. However I’ve hope that with Sean Payton there, Wilson will bounce again. It is value noting that one among Wilson’s finest Fantasy days of final season got here at Las Vegas and that the Raiders gave up the fifth-most Fantasy factors to QBs final 12 months. They need to be higher in 2023, however not a lot. There may be an outdoor probability Wilson does sufficient in Week 1 that you simply’re not streaming.
Format Issues
Higher in leagues that reward 4 factors per go TD: Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields
Higher in leagues that mean you can begin multiple QB: Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love, Derek Carr
